Field Note · Agency & Reversibility
When Command+Z Isn't an Option
An AI agent took an irreversible action a human could not undo. The line that governs autonomy is not how smart the agent is, it is whether the act can be walked back: a long leash on the reversible, a short leash at the one-way doors, enforced at the tool layer.
NOTOMATION · the undo envelope · tool-layer guardrail
Forensic Audit · Trade Secret
The Apple–OpenAI Fault Line
Twelve pieces written before the complaint existed, read against the filed complaint. A belief ledger with conviction scores from first draft to now, and the two claims that got struck on the record.
Apple v. Liu et al. · 5:26-CV-07078 · N.D. Cal.
Special Situations · Merger Arb
ZIM: Not a Simple 20% Arbitrage
A source-graded, scenario-probability read on the ZIM / Hapag-Lloyd merger, where the whole trade turns on an Israeli golden-share veto. A 30,000-path scenario matrix, named triggers, and a risk-adjusted grade.
ZIM (NYSE: ZIM) · Hapag-Lloyd · $4.2B
Calibration · Receipts
Closing the Loop: Receipts on Three Predictions
Three dated, public calls about Apple, each with a falsifier written down before the fact, checked against the record after, one correction owned in full. The loop the whole series runs on: score before, check after, correct in public.
Three predictions · three falsifiers · one correction